Tag Archives: Iran

Israel, Politics, Security

“Russian fighter jet shot down by Israeli Air Force fighter jet; Is this in our future?”

As promised in a previous post, it seems timely for a post on the Russian moves and discuss what I feel might be a progression of events and why. Israel takes action when threats are calculated to represent a direct threat to the nation. This includes a cost factor or an early “penny wise pound foolish” approach to action based on how a calculation of delay would mean a higher cost in terms of prevention, deterrent, or actual conflict after heavy terrorist or advanced weaponry infrastructure is in place.

If Russia is adding Syria in their ever expanding sphere of control and regional military dominance along the north south longitude lines including Ukraine, Crimea, Georgia’s South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and heavy influence in countries along the same area, then Israel seems to be the only bulwark. Imagine what the situation would be were Russia to suddenly state that they are protecting their national interests, and their Russian nationals (2 Million Israeli’s are from the former USSR, sound like Ukrainian story?) by moving against Israel as a reaction to an escalation in Syria, again, caused by Israel. If Russia feels that this is in its interest and permits or encourages Iranian and Russian advanced arms to flow to Hezbollah and Syrian backed military, and Israel steps in to block this, again, then Russia will have an excuse to act. An excuse created totally by Russia, but who would worry by them. There was one other time in history when the U.S. and Russia almost came to blows during an Egyptian conflict with Israel. Then Israel would be in a position to choose how to respond. What would happen if Israel were to join the Russian camp and play both sides?

Today, Egypt is close with Israel in their military and security cooperation, although a long way to go in terms of true potential peaceful relationship. The U.S. has tried to play a game with Egypt that makes no sense to anybody watching Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood and their modus operandi. So, Russia can move in this direction as well, and then Egypt becomes another choke point for goods traversing the Suez Canal, just like Yemen at the other end. If you want to control the price of Oil, how better way than to control all the pipelines or sea lanes? Does anybody pay attention to Russia’s recently erected fence placing a short BP-operated oil pipeline section Caspian Sea to Black Sea (Baku-Supsa) inside Russian occupied territory?

I don’t believe Russian fighter jet pilots wish to come up against the Israeli Air Force, it would potentially be extremely embarrassing for Russia. Russian fighter aircraft pilots and hot-dog anti-aircraft operators have in the past moved against American aircraft, commercial and military, and after the fact, you can’t do much. (How’s the investigation and accountability going for the recently shot down passenger aircraft over the Ukraine?) But, none of those were Israeli engagements. This is now why this is in my opinion, entering into a totally new area. Israel doesn’t act like the United States or any other nation. It will act first to defend itself and typically without a lot of noise. So, if there is a mission, Israel will act, if the Russians move to intercept or interfere using any of the weapons at their disposal, Israel will surprise Russian aggression and it will be decisive. The question would be what happens next, how Mr. Putin would feel he’d have to respond after such a humiliating encounter. I think that he knows this, and probably voiced very strict orders directly from Putin himself to not, never, no matter what, engage with any Israeli aircraft. No problem with United States aircraft since the rules of engagement might be similar to Beirut 1983 or Benghazi where the U.S. is there to show their shiny new toys, but are not allowed to use them by direct command from their commander in chief. Assad is irrelevant, he will be replaced by a Russian backed and controlled entity, and then the entire region will fall nicely into the ever expanding sphere of Putin and his demagogues.

Let’s hope the fictitious attention grabbing headline above never gets published. Once big boys start to sit in the small corner booth that is the Middle East, the existing small family trying to eat their meal in peace will not have much choice in how to respond to the new crowded reality.

Israel, Life's Perspective, Politics, Security

“Israel, don’t worry about Iran, worry about the U.S. after Iran or their proxies Nuke Manhattan…”

Why? Simple, if history is any indicator, if Iran were to nuke Manhattan, many in the media and on the left would immediately blame the Mossad, Jews, and Israel and increase calls to boycott all things Israeli for either directly or indirectly causing such an event. (Iranian mullahs read and listen to the news too and saw how Israel was blamed for 911 to their delight. Israel is even being blamed for the current refugee problems in Europe!) Tom Clancy many years before 911 wrote about planes piloted into the U.S. Capital, and yet, nobody in the Defense department considered the Twin Towers a critical U.S. infrastructure asset worthy of minimum protection. How do you spell Asymmetrical Warfare? duh, the U.S. deployed the tactic early on, remember the British and the early American colonial fighters hiding behind trees instead of standing up like ducks? Such a total defense of any and all towers in North America is easy, but few if any are protected even today. (Do you really think the new and shiny Freedom tower is actually safe? It is now a more powerful target, taunting the same lunatics.)

Now, here is why I believe Iran will not even try to attack Israel, simple, they know they won’t succeed. The Iranian Mullahs have been planning for more than 35 years their attack of the west. Their success in attacking Israel over the years even with total financial and military support for Hezbollah and Hamas and others like Fatah, PFLP, PLO, Muslim Brotherhood etc., have failed, the opposite has occurred actually but that’s another post. What they, the Iranians and their ilk, have seen is how Israelis are “crazy” resourceful and geniuses at defending their people and homeland, and are really hard to catch off guard (Awareness, again, another post). So, if you have one ג€œsilver bulletג€ you donג€™t waste it on Israel (Name any other country that has the technology of system that can shoot down a bullet with another bullet?), you go after the arguably crown jewels of the U.S. and thatג€™s Manhattan, not the Pentagon or the White House even though many in DC would like to think they are so important or matter. Iran understands Branding, and the U.S. Brand is Manhattan, NYC, time square, the financial district, etc. with the White House, Pentagon, and the beltway area in general a tertiary or more tactical target, certainly not strategic.

The U.S. would never really ג€œwipe outג€ any other country with another Nuke attack even if the U.S. were attacked.

Ok, so how might they attack, thatג€™s unfortunately even easier, imagine it yourself; how hard is it to attack the US? Well, if youג€™re going to do that, follow another Tom Clancy book/movie, also successful just like the first. You take your cool new toy, read nuke in a juke, youג€™ve created, and stick it in a package bound for the port of Manhattan/New Jerseyג€™s Statue of Liberty Island, Ellis Island (Most likely currently in successful dry run for many years to enable the “package” to fall into the ג€œsafeג€ category of no inspection required due to algorithms based on security risk assessments). With the recent success of Israelג€™s Iron Dome, the Arrow system, and other intelligence operations, they, the Iranians, know they have one shot, their silver bullet, better make it a game changer. Israel as a first target just doesn’t meet the level of green light for success. The U.S. has always been the easiest target and lord knows the U.S. debt ~ $20T U.S.D. and dollar value as a fiat currency is a tall tree with weak trunk, nice target to topple, wouldn’t be the first fiat currency in history to crash by a long stretch. By sneaking a nuclear device onto a large ocean going container vessel into the port of NY/NJ, they can claim ignorance and say that it must be ISIS or Al-Qaida, or even the Russians, but not poor little innocent Iran. It amazes me still to this day how they’ve managed to obviate their entire past history of terror sponsorship. (The Beirut Barracks Bombings on October 23, 1983, in Beirut, Lebanon (Yet another example of how asymmetrical warfare was deployed against the U.S. and due to U.S. military code of conduct and apprehension to escalate tensions by an accidental discharge of a weapon at the gate to the compound, the U.S. took it on the chin. Benghazi anybody?) was a huge blow to the U.S., only to have the U.S. pull all activities out and hand it over to Iran/Hezbollah. (Now Russia, but again, another post.))

What do you, the U.S. population do the day after God forbid such a disaster? The U.S. would never really ג€œwipe outג€ any other country with another Nuke attack even if the U.S. were attacked. It just wouldnג€™t happen. Too many years of guilt after the albeit arguably justified WWII events. So, by the time the U.S. knew definitively that Iran was responsible, the U.S. would be well removed from a knee jerk impulse to retaliate. Imagine another 20 years of asking Iran what they want to join us at the modern table. So I would guess that around 50% of the U.S.’s population and 75% of the media, would still be speaking on all the talk shows about how Israel was somehow the reason or behind it. “We call on Israel once and for all, turn over the keys to your country, the illegal country of Israel to the kingdom to Islam.” Jerusalem and all the worlds holy sites, would become Islamic holy sites that pre-date any other monotheistic historical religious site, and there would be no political will to do much of anything especially to stop further aggression from the likes of the Sharia crowd that continues to grow in the face of no resistance just like a nice fungus, no building, only cultural and economic infrastructure destruction.

So, why do I say such things, well, after many years of watching things happen and not happen, i.e., preventative action replaced by cover my butt bureaucracy folks that don’t want to lose their job by offending any Politically Correct action or statement, I have to at least shout to anybody listening to be careful, dare to connect the dots, and don’t be fooled by a group of people who by their own law and religion, must lie to us “infidels” to gain our trust only to then stab us in the back with a sweet smile on their faceג€¦ After all, their aim is not ours nor their cultural value system, rather it is totally foreign and very dark and scary. Stand up and stop this by simply being informed and aware. Action is in the hands of those charged with our survival and safety. Most of the time, the biggest heroes in history take the simplest action at the lowest level in the chain of command that then thwart the most deadly planned missions. Let you be that hero, and may God continue to protect us all from the dark forces that continue to creep ever into the fore.